The conditions for sustained growth in emerging economies in the context of the current crisis

There is a reasonably well-understood sustained high growth model. The long-term prospects are therefore pretty good, assuming that we return to a very supportive global environment, open with respect to trade, capital, knowledge and all sorts of other factors

My assignment today is to shed some light on the prospects for the developing world. I will address some of the feature of the crisis but also some longer-term issues.
Let me start with a brief summary. As compared with 30 years ago when there were about a billion people living in OECD countries or rapidly developing countries, there are now between four and four and a half billion, a sea-change in the global economy. There is a reasonably well-understood sustained high growth model that has made that happen.